Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R 2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25☌. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979–2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041–2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns.
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